Projected Covid19 Fatalities: Worldwide, USA, UK & Canada — July 25 2020
PANDEMIC’s WAVE#1 is only 40% OVER!
FUTURE DEATHS PROJECTION: 982,000 WORLDWIDE
USA 91,000; UK 2,300 & CANADA 110
due to NOVEL CORONAVIRUS COVID-19
July 25th 2020 — Based on recent mortality trends, today’s update of TRENDLines Research’s fatalities model indicates these targets: 1.63 million global deaths (present toll 648,000 + 982,000 future); 239,000 in the USA (148K toll + 91K future); 48,100 in the UK (45,800 toll + 2,300 future); 9,030 in Canada (8,920 toll + 110 future); 2,843 in Ontario (2,803 toll + 40 future); & 199 victims in BC (191 toll + 8 future) due to the Covid-19 novel coronavirus.
New post-peak lows for daily-deaths were set in July in the UK, Canada & Ontario. There were only two fatalities in the past seven days in BC. But relaxation of lock-downs, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing has vaulted American daily-deaths by 262% from its recent wave-1 low & worldwide daily-deaths to 7,700 … a new record and up 190% over the global post-peak wave-1 low set in late May.
The chart & underlying stats of TRENDLines Research’s post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly.
Based on July trends, TR’s PPL model forecasts yet another 982,000 Covid19 deaths across the globe by year end. Added to the present toll of 648K, the total 2020 count could reach 1,630,000 w/o improvements in gov’t support and/or change of behaviour. This projection is double that issued (see table) just six weeks back! Today’s figures suggest the pandemic’s first wave is only 40% complete.
We believe the pandemic numbers to be quite conservative. Unless there has been a flurry of shark attacks, the national Covid fatality counts should mirror a country’s published “seasonal excess deaths”. But in far too many nations, their Covid counts are materially lower — suggesting upward revisions are pending.
The highest daily-deaths’ currently occur (in order) in Brazil, USA, India, Mexico, Columbia, Peru, Iran, South Africa, Kyrgyzstan, Russia & Indonesia.
It remains an outrage that in this seventh month of the pandemic far too many health workers & first responders around the world still lack sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and timely accurate testing.
Worldwide fatality rate: 83 deaths/million population
Similarly, the model projects another 91K deaths in America. Added to the present toll of 148K, the 2020 fatality count may reach 239K. It is probable the USA will be #1 in daily-deaths next week by overtaking Brazil.
How did the USA embark on this health crisis? Here’s a clue: During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th, the President stated to the Fox News host:
“You’ll have packed churches all over the country. It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions. I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter. It would be a beautiful thing. “Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it’s going to be very hard to start it up again. We can’t lose the the advantage we have.”
It was on this precise day America was infected with “the TrumpVirus”. On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths — apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world’s population.
But it marked the day everything changed. And leads one to ask why then does the USA today have 26% of known world Covid cases & 23% of global body bags? The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President. His failure to mitigate Covid-19’s spread runs the length of his stay in office.
Albeit Obama’s Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust “playbook”, un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House’s National Security Council’s Pandemic Unit in 2018. Dr Dennis Carol’s Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019. And ‘cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC’s renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.
This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse “this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine”. After his “miracle” failed, the self-proclaimed “extremely stable genius” offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.
And it appears many continue to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?). Prior to flattening their curves, mostly “red States” have been relaxing physical distancing, stay-at-home policies & masking. 33 States experienced a rise in their new daily cases curve this week.
From its onset it was evident Trump’s “Opening Up America Again” campaign was rooted in politics. Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama’s multiple 5% GDP growth rates. 2020’s Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can — hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March. With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.
So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear. As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced July 30th (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions). The Q3 GDP announcement is Oct29th — a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).
At this time it appears Q2 will decline 13% prior to a 5% rebound in Q3. Of the 52 million workers initiating unemployment claims, 32 million remain on the rolls. With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 is poised to initiate desperate manoeuvres … like forcing schools to re-open in September!
In short, he risked a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He desperately wants to avoid voters going to the polls with the realization that The Donald (alone) was at fault for April’s 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-18% GDP) since the Great Depression.
45% of victims resided in long-term care facilities.
USA’s fatality rate: 441 deaths/million (9th worst in world)
The model predicts 2,300 additional deaths in the UK. Added to the present toll of 45,800, the 2020 total fatality tally should be 48,100.
The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 7% of the Covid19 deaths. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.
UK’s fatality rate: 686 deaths/million (2nd worst in world)
The model estimates 110 more deaths in Canada. Added to the present toll of 8,920, the total 2020 fatalities may reach 9,030.
Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there’s no surprise that this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 82% of fatalities-to-date are long-term care and seniors home residents/staff. Not a single American State exceeds this metric.
Canada’s fatality rate: 241 deaths/million
The model projects only 40 more deaths in Ontario. Added to the present toll of 2,803, the 2020 fatality count should end at 2,843.
Ontario has initiated an Inquiry Commission due to the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.
Ontario’s fatality rate: 190 deaths/million
The Province suffered a handful of deaths last week, but with a mere 12 hospitalizations presently, the model predicts only 8 future Covid19 deaths in BC this Summer. Added to the present toll of 191, the total fatality count should be 199 … excluding unforeseen outbreaks.
Having attained a 50% contact rate and daily cases in the single digits, BC effectively shut down wave#1 back on June 20th — and went nine days w/o a fatality. Unfortunately, its re-opening regimen has proved too liberal and the contact rate appears to have suffered a relapse to the 85% vicinity, resulting in 31 subsequent deaths and three dozen cases per day.
British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off. Wise leadership quickly contained the spread and both jurisdictions are on paths to normality. Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.
Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 74% of total fatalities. BC boasts an incidence rate of only 61 cases per 100k population (17/100k on Vancouver Island).
BC fatality rate: 37 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR’s linearization model. It analyzes the subtle changes in a jurisdiction’s daily-death rate after the curve’s peak — particularly the most recent days & weeks. The graph’s data points move left to right chronologically above its date’s cumulative death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths. As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data pt (high fatality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count … and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve’s down-slope. This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has produced global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region — presented alone or with comparatives.
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines removes the noise in economic data to reveal the underlying trends. Specialties include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China; Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia; Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.