Projected Covid19 Fatalities: Worldwide, USA, UK & Canada — July 5 2021
PANDEMIC’s WAVE#1 SURGES are 90% DONE!
FUTURE FATALITIES PROJECTION: 400,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 7,500 & UK 610 & CANADA 610 incl ONTARIO 540 & BC 22 VICTIMS
July 5th 2021 — Based on changing mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today’s update of TRENDLines Research’s Covid-19 fatalities model projects the ultimate 2020–2022 death count due to all wave#1 surges will be 4.4 million worldwide (present toll 4 million + 400,000 future) incl 621,000 in the USA (613,500 toll + 7,500 future); 128,990 in the UK (128,380 toll + 610 future) & 27,020 in Canada (26,410 toll + 610 future) incl 9,800 in Ontario (9,200 toll + 540 future) & 1,778 in BC (1,756 toll + 22 future).
The Post-Peak Linearization Model suggested wave#1 was essentially suppressed in the UK & Canada-wide (incl BC & Ontario) after its first surge in mid-2020. Unfortunately, those early sacrifices proved to be in vain. Premature relaxation of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing in all four jurisdictions gave rise to resurgences upon each attempt at re-opening. On the contrary, at no time last year did the USA or Global death curves see material suppression.
We are not witnessing second or third waves typically spawned by seasonal relapse or mutated strains. The mishandling of Wave#1 by almost all jurisdictions — by faulty policy or soft enforcement — surged cases (and hospitalisation & deaths) on each occasion of failed re-openings. Only the rapid deployment of vaccines is saving politicians from themselves. It appears those jurisdictions attaining 70% first dose penetrations are permanently bending the curve.
A pair of risks remain. Many right-leaning jurisdictions face outbreaks due to their implementing normalisation strategies whilst hosting vaccine hesitancy in the 30–50% realm. And each month the pandemic lingers supports the development opportunity of a variant resistant to present vaccines.
Current model runs indicate the UK was the first of our monitored jurisdictions to virtually suppress its Covid19 episode (May 2021). BC should be clear by this September, while Canada-wide, UK & USA will follow in November. Ontario in December. Albeit the worldwide first dose level is only 24% today, the model projects global suppression of Covid19 in January 2022.
See website table for archive of all past projections. The model’s chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at: www.trendlines.ca & www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch & see weekly text updates at: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa
Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 400,000 Covid19 deaths across the globe before being suppressed in January 2022. Added to the current toll (4.0 million), the ultimate 2020–2022 fatalities are projected at 4.4 million. Today’s daily-deaths rate (7,900) is down 47% from its January 2021 record high.
The model suggests the pandemic’s first wave is 90% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 112 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.2% case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths’ today: Brazil (1,565), India, Russia, Colombia, Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, USA & Mexico. For context of Trump’s containment failure, America comprises 56% of today’s world “active” cases but 15% of total deaths albeit only 4% of global population.
41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.
Worldwide mortality rate: 0.05% or 523 deaths/million population
The model similarly indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 7,500 Covid deaths across America before being suppressed in November 2021. Added to the current toll (613,500), the ultimate 2020–2021 fatalities are projected at 621K. Today’s daily-deaths rate (278) is 93% below its February 2021 record high. The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (30), Texas, Missouri, Arizona, California & Pennsylvania.
The model suggests the USA’s first wave is 99% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President proposed packing the nation’s churches on Easter and return to work the following day. It was on this precise day America was infected with “the TrumpVirus”. On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths — apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world’s population.
It marked the day everything changed. Just over a year later, the USA has 18% of world’s cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today’s global “active” cases & 15% of worldwide body bags. The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2. And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15 million remain on the rolls.
The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realising The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020’s 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever — including the Great Depression.
Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims — as high as 73% in some States. 81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.
USA’s mortality rate: 0.19% or 1,851 deaths/million (19th worst in world — behind Peru (0.6%), Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Slovakia, Belgium, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia, Italy, Croatia, Poland, UK, Paraguay & Mexico)
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across the UK before being suppressed in November 2021. Added to the current toll (128,380), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 128,990. The UK’s wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits. There are presently 18 deaths/day. The high was 1,347/day in January 2021.
The model suggests the UK’s first wave is again essentially suppressed. The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 1.1 million UK lives (66 million x 67% x 2.6% case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 8% of today’s world “active” cases. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.
UK’s mortality rate: 0.19% or 1,931 deaths/million (17th worst in world)
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across Canada before being mostly suppressed in November 2021. Added to the current toll (26,410), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 27,020. It reveals Canada’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits. There are presently 21 deaths per day — substantially down from the record highs of 175/day in May 2020 & 173 in January 2021.
The model suggests Canada’s first wave is 98% complete. The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 446,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there’s no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities. 88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.
Canada’s mortality rate: 0.07% or 710 deaths/million
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 540 Covid deaths across Ontario before being suppressed in December 2021. Added to the current toll (9,260), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 9,800. It reveals Ontario’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day. There are presently 13 deaths/day — down substantially from the record highs of 62/day in May 2020 & 61 in January 2021.
The model suggests Ontario’s first wave is 94% complete. Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario’s credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.
Ontario’s mortality rate: 0.06% or 630 deaths/million
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 22 Covid deaths across BC before being suppressed in September 2021. Added to the current toll (1,756), ultimate 2020–2021 fatalities are projected at 1,778. It indicates BC’s wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 — when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day. There is presently 1 death/day — down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.
The model suggests the Province’s first wave is 99% complete. Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 40,000 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.2% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe. British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off. Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.
Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences. Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.
BC mortality rate: 0.03% or 344 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR’s linearization model. It extrapolates a jurisdiction’s mortality rate after the curve’s peak — particularly the most recent days & weeks. The graph’s data points move left to right chronologically above its date’s cumulative death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths. As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count … and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve’s down-slope and assumes no change in gov’t guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour. This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region — presented alone or with comparatives.
The chart, underlying stats & commentary of TRENDLines Research’s post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly at www.trendlines.ca
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends. Specialities include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China; Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia; Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections. Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.