Projected Covid19 Fatalities: Worldwide, USA, UK & Canada — April 8 2022

COVID-19 PANDEMIC is 98% DONE!
PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES: 160,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 15,000 & UK 5,550 & CANADA 620 incl ONTARIO 220 & BC 64 VICTIMS

April 8th 2022 — Based on the novel coronavirus’s changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today’s update of TRENDLines Research’s Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020–2022 death count of 6.33 million worldwide (present toll 6.17 million + 160,000 future) incl 1,015,000 in the USA (1,000,000 toll + 15,000 future); 195,650 in the UK (190,100 toll + 5,550 future) & 38,470 in Canada (37,850 toll + 620 future) incl 12,750 in Ontario (12,530 toll + 220 future) & 3,066 in BC (3,002 toll + 64 future) — based on current policymaker mitigation of the Omicron variant.

Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived, misguided policymaker decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 29 month duration — before becoming endemic — assuming no new variants-of-concern.

This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of premature normalization (thrice); (b) reluctance to require shelter-in-place; © an over-reliance on vaccination programs; (d) hording vaccines away from developing nations; (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing and contact tracing convention.

These failures to arrest the original Alpha/Beta variants led to successive surges of same and founded an environment for the Delta & Omicron (incl BA2) variants to flourish. Modelling reveals this event should have been only a six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities. Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.2 million unnecessary victims worldwide. These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid’s first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC. Unfortunately, those early lock-down sacrifices proved to be in vain. Premature relaxation of Orders and guidelines in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening. OTOH, the USA & Global models didn’t signal near-suppression ’til July 2021.

Around the world the same policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of four waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations): Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & BA2 — and surges within those waves.

As a “post-peak” model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron events. Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in Vax-hesitant regions. Excepting developing nations w/o vaccine access, one might surmise there was lot of Darwin’s natural selection at work. And fortunately, the latter are mostly right-wing qAnons.

Consensus originally posited natural & community herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% jabs and/or Alpha/Beta infections. Upon Covid19 spawning new variants-of-concern, that threshold seems meaningless and outbreaks continue to occur among the unvaccinated and breakthru cases are seen where vaccine/booster strength has waned.

Current model runs indicate Omicron will transition to endemic status: late April in Ontario & Canada-wide; early May in BC & USA; and early June in UK & Worldwide. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant is presently forming a 4th Covid19 Wave. Since 36% of the globe still lacks even a first jab, it is probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020. The model’s composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

www.trendlines.ca

www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

weekly projection (text) updates: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

WORLDWIDE
Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the pandemic’s third wave (Omicron) will claim yet another 160,000 fatalities across the globe before transitioning to endemic status in early June — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (6.17 million), an ultimate 6.33 million victims are projected 2020–2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (4,000) is down 72% from its January 2021 record high (14,400). Today 64% of the world’s population have at least one jab. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

The model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today: USA (500), South Korea, Russia, Germany, UK, Brazil, Italy, Hong Kong, Thailand & India.

The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.33 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

Worldwide mortality rate: 0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

USA
The model similarly indicates the pandemic’s third wave (Omicron) will claim yet another 15,000 fatalities across America before transitioning to endemic status in early May — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (1,000,000), an ultimate 1,015,000 victims are projected over 2020–2022. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

Today’s daily-deaths rate (500) is 86% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500). The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (60), Florida, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania & Kansas.

The model suggests the USA’s Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation’s churches on Easter and return to work the following day. It was on this precise day America was infected with “the TrumpVirus”. On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths — apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world’s population.

It marked the day everything changed. For context of Trump’s containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020. Twenty-five months later, the USA still has 16% of world’s cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today’s global “active” cases & 16% of worldwide body bags. The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2. 75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020’s 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever — including the Great Depression.

The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,015,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims — as high as 73% in some States. 81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

USA’s mortality rate: 0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million — 17th worst in world — behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

UK
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 5,550 fatalities across the UK before transitioning to endemic status in early June — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (190,100), an ultimate 195,650 victims are projected over 2020–2022. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

The UK’s wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (130) is 90% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

The model suggests the UK’s Covid19 pandemic is 97% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 149K souls (of 195,650 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today’s world “active” cases. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

UK’s mortality rate: 0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

CANADA
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave (Omicron) will claim yet another 620 fatalities across Canada before transitioning to endemic status in late April — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (37,850), an ultimate 38,470 victims are projected 2020–2022. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

The model reveals Canada’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (35) is 80% below its May 2020 record high (175).

The model suggests Canada’s Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 29K souls (of 38,470 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there’s no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities. 88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

Canada’s mortality rate: 0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

ONTARIO
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave (Omicron) will claim yet another 220 fatalities across Ontario before transitioning to endemic status in late April — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (12,530), an ultimate 12,750 victims are projected 2020–2022. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

It reveals Ontario’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day. Today’s daily-deaths rate (12) is 81% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

The model suggests Ontario’s pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 10K (of 12,750 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario’s credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario’s mortality rate: 0.09% or 852 deaths/million

BC
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave (Omicron) will claim yet another 64 fatalities across the Province before transitioning to endemic status in early May — based on existing policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (3,002), an ultimate 3,066 victims are projected 2020–2022. Omicron’s BA2 sub-variant and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

It reveals BC’s wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 — when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (3) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

The model suggests BC’s pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 2K souls (of 3,066 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe. British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off. Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences. Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

BC mortality rate: 0.06% or 587 deaths/million

The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR’s linearization model. It extrapolates a jurisdiction’s mortality rate after the curve’s peak — particularly the most recent days & weeks. The graph’s data points move left to right chronologically above its date’s cumulative death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths. As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count … and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve’s down-slope and assumes no change in gov’t guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour. This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region — presented alone or with comparatives.

About TRENDLines Research

Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends. Specialties include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China; Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia; Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections. Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.

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TRENDLines Research’s data analyst, Freddy Hutter (BC, Canada) has developed macro-economic models since 1989, publishing unique charts at http://trendlines.ca

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Freddy Hutter

Freddy Hutter

TRENDLines Research’s data analyst, Freddy Hutter (BC, Canada) has developed macro-economic models since 1989, publishing unique charts at http://trendlines.ca

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