PANDEMIC is 87% DONE!
FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST: 740,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 48,000 & UK 4,130 & CANADA 1,010 incl ONTARIO 170 & BC 53 VICTIMS
Oct 9th 2021 — Based on changing mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today’s update of TRENDLines Research’s Covid-19 fatalities model projects the ultimate 2020–2022 death count due to both waves will be 5.6 million worldwide (present toll 4.8 million + 740,000 future) incl 773,000 in the USA (725,000 toll + 48,000 future); 141,730 in the UK (137,600 toll + 4,130 future) & 29,200 in Canada (28,190 toll + 1,010 future) incl 9,960 in Ontario (9,790 toll + 170 future) & 2,054 in BC (2,001 toll + 53 future).
Early in this pandemic, the Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed wave#1’s first surge by mid-2020 in the UK, Canada-wide, BC & Ontario. Unfortunately, those early lock-down sacrifices proved to be in vain. Premature relaxation of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing in all four jurisdictions gave rise to resurgences upon each attempt at re-opening. The USA & Global models did not detect signs of near-suppression ’til a year later (July 2022).
Except for a very few instances, policymaker mismanagement in most regions spawned repeated wave#1 surges. Finally, as first-dose vaccination programs began to exceed 70% penetration, the models again suggested suppression thresholds were at hand. But then along came Delta!
Pandemic second waves are spawned by seasonal relapses or mutated strains. The Delta variant is the latter. And since late July, all six jurisdictions saw immense surging of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Now after thirteen weeks, wave#2 is finally peaking in our six domains and the model can today again project future fatalities — albeit some regions sport anti-vaxxer hotspots. Let’s call it “Darwin’s natural selection at work”.
And it appears community herd immunity is nowhere in sight. Consensus originally held it would kick in when a population was at least 67% jabbed-or-infected. But it is increasingly evident outbreaks among the unvaccinated & breakthru cases are still occurring where jab/infection rates are as high as 80%.
A pair of risks remain: Ongoing new cases in vaccine-hesitant pockets & the dangerous opportunity for a variant resistant to present vaccines developing each month the pandemic lingers.
Current model runs indicate the Delta surge should be suppressed in Canada by Dec/2021, by Jan/2022 in the UK & USA and by Aug/2022 globally.
See website table for archive of all past projections. The model’s composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:
— weekly projection stats updates: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa
Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 740,000 fatalities across the globe before being suppressed in November 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (4.8 million), an ultimate 5.6 millioin victims are projected over 2020–2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (7,600) is down 47% from its January 2021 record high (14,400). Today 48% of the world’s population have had at least one jab.
The model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 87% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths today: USA (1,800), Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Romania, India, Turkey, Iran, Philippines & Vietnam.
41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.
Worldwide mortality rate: 0.06% or 638 deaths/million population
The model similarly indicates the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 48,000 fatalities across America before being suppressed in January 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (725,000), an ultimate 773,000 victims are projected over 2020–2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (1,800) is 49% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500). The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (196), Texas, Georgia, California, North Carolina & Kansas.
The model suggests the USA’s Covid19 pandemic is 94% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation’s churches on Easter and return to work the following day. It was on this precise day America was infected with “the TrumpVirus”. On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths — apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world’s population.
It marked the day everything changed. For context of Trump’s containment failure, The USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020. Twenty-one months later, the USA still has 19% of world’s cumulative Covid cases, 19% of the today’s global “active” cases & 15% of worldwide body bags. The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2. And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 4.2 million remain on the rolls today when the norm is 1.7 million.
The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020’s 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever — including the Great Depression.
Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims — as high as 73% in some States. 81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.
USA’s mortality rate: 0.22% or 2,178 deaths/million — 16th worst in world — behind Peru (0.60%), Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czechia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Georgia, Slovakia, Paraguay, Belgium, Mexico & Slovenia.
The model indicates the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 4,130 fatallities across the UK before being suppressed in January 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (137,600), an ultimate 141,730 victims are projected over 2020–2022.
The UK’s wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (113) is 91% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).
The model suggests the UK’s Covid19 pandemic is 97% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 3% of today’s world “active” cases. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.
UK’s mortality rate: 0.21% or 2,073 deaths/million (19th worst in world)
The model indicates the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 1,010 fatalities across Canada before being suppressed in December 2021 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (28,190), an ultimate 29,200 victims are projected over 2020/2021. It reveals Canada’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (38) is 78% below its May 2020 record high (175).
The model suggests Canada’s Covid19 pandemic is 97% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there’s no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities. 88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.
Canada’s mortality rate: 0.08% or 762 deaths/million
The model indicates the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 170 fatalities across Ontario before being suppressed in November 2021 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (9,790), an ultimate 9,960 victims are projected over 2020/2021. It reveals Ontario’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day. Today’s daily-deaths rate (6) is 90% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.
The model suggests Ontario’s pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario’s credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.
Ontario’s mortality rate: 0.07% or 666 deaths/million
The model indicates the pandemic’s wave#2 will claim yet another 53 fatalities across the Province before being suppressed in November 2021 — based on present policymaker mitigation. Added to the current toll (2,001), an ultimate 2,054 victims are projected over 2020–2021. It reveals BC’s wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 — when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate 4 is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.
The model suggests BC’s pandemic is 97% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projectin may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe. British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off. Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.
Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences. Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.
BC mortality rate: 0.04% or 392 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR’s linearization model. It extrapolates a jurisdiction’s mortality rate after the curve’s peak — particularly the most recent days & weeks. The graph’s data points move left to right chronologically above its date’s cumulative death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths. As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count … and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve’s down-slope and assumes no change in gov’t guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour. This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region — presented alone or with comparatives.
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends. Specialties include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China; Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia; Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections. Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.