— — until next monthly composite chart update (April 4th 2022), see weekly projection (text) stats at: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

COVID-19 PANDEMIC is 95% DONE!
PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES: 330,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 102,000 & UK 1,980 & CANADA 1,210 incl ONTARIO 285 & BC 293 VICTIMS

March 6th 2022 — Based on the novel coronavirus’s changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today’s update of TRENDLines Research’s Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020–2022 death count of 6.31 million worldwide (present toll 5.98 million + 330,000 future) incl 1,071,000 in the USA (969,000 toll + 102,000 future); 163,180 in the UK (162,000 toll + 1,980 future) & 38,050 in Canada (36,840 toll + 1,210 future) incl 12,810 in Ontario (12,525 toll + 285 future) & 3,196 in BC (2,903 toll + 293 future) — based on current policymaker mitigation of the Omicron variant.

Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived, misguided policymaker decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 30 month duration — before becoming endemic. This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the misguided Trump strategy of premature normalization (twice); (b) reluctance to require shelter-in-place; © an over-reliance on vaccination programs; (d) hording those vaccines from developing nations; (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing and contact tracing convention. These failures to arrest the original Alpha/Beta variants led to subsequent surges and laid an environment for Delta & Omicron variant to flourish.

Modelling reveals this event should have been a six-month episode with 1.45 million fatalities. Instead, today’s projection reveals policymaker hubris may have caused an additional 4.8 million unnecessary victims worldwide. These unnecessary deaths include 950K in USA, 120K in UK & 30K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 3K in BC).

My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid’s first wave by mid-2020 in the UK, Canada-wide, BC & Ontario. Unfortunately, those early lock-down sacrifices proved to be in vain. Premature relaxation of Orders and guidelines in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening. The USA & Global models did not signal near-suppression ’til July 2021 — but alas both experienced new waves as well.

Most other regions experienced the same policymaker mismanagement spawning a string of surges — and waves based on seasonality or material mutation of the strain.

Second or third pandemic waves arise due to either seasonality or material mutation of the strain. The Delta variant is the latter and flourished from late July to early November (2021) in all six tracked jurisdictions. As a “post-peak” model, no projections were cast during this period. For the most part, the surging cases, hoitalizations and deaths reigned throughout Vax-hesitant regions. One might say it was “Darwin’s natural selection at work”. Projections were again unavailable whilst Omicron peaked late December to late February.

It appears both natural & community herd immunity are nowhere in sight. Consensus originally held it would kick in when a population was at least 67% jabbed and/or infected. But having exceeded that threshold, it is seen outbreaks continue to occur among the unvaccinated and (as breakthru cases) where vaccine strength has waned.

In most regions, only 5 to 20% of populations have been infected. As Omicron wanes it is uncertain whether herd immunity will take hold, Covid-19 goes endemic or a new variant arises. Current model runs indicate a transition to endemic status will occur: late March 2022 in UK & Ontario, April 2022 Canada-wide, June 2022 Globally & in BC and October 2022 in the USA.

See website table for archive of all past projections. The model’s composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

www.trendlines.ca & www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

see weekly projection (text) updates: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

WORLDWIDE
Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 330,000 fatalities across the globe before transitioning to endemic status in June 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (5.98 million), an ultimate 6.31 million victims are projected 2020–2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (7,400) is down 48% from its January 2021 record high (14,400). Today 63% of the world’s population have at least one jab.

The model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 95% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths today: USA (1,500), Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Ukraine, Japan, India, South Korea, Hong Kong & Poland.

Today’s projection reveals 4.8 million souls (of 6.31 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

Worldwide mortality rate: 0.08% or 789 deaths/million population

USA
The model similarly indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 102,000 fatalities across America before transitioning to endemic status in October 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (969,000), an ultimate 1,071,000 victims are projected over 2020–2022.

Today’s daily-deaths rate (1,500) is 56% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500). The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (180), Florida, Texas, Georgia, Michigan&, Pennsylvania & North Carolina.

The model suggests the USA’s Covid19 pandemic is 91% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation’s churches on Easter and return to work the following day. It was on this precise day America was infected with “the TrumpVirus”. On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths — apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world’s population.

It marked the day everything changed. For context of Trump’s containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020. Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 18% of world’s cumulative Covid cases, 18% of the today’s global “active” cases & 16% of worldwide body bags. The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2. 75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020’s 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever — including the Great Depression.

Today’s projection reveals 950,000 souls (of 1,071,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims — as high as 73% in some States. 81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

USA’s mortality rate: 0.29% or 2,929 deaths/million — 16th worst in world — behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Brazil, Slovenia, Lithuania & Poland.

UK
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 1,980 fatalities across the UK before transitioning to endemic status in late March 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (162,000), an ultimate 163,980 victims are projected over 2020–2022.

The UK’s wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (85) is 99% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

The model suggests the UK’s Covid19 pandemic is 95% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

Today’s projection reveals 120K souls (of 163,980 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today’s world “active” cases. 37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

UK’s mortality rate: 0.24% or 2,443 deaths/million (27th worst in world)

CANADA
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 1,210 fatalities across Canada before transitioning to endemic status in April 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (36,840), an ultimate 38,050 victims are projected 2020–2022.

The model reveals Canada’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits. Today’s daily-deaths rate (62) is 65% below its May 2020 record high (175).

The model suggests Canada’s Covid19 pandemic is 97% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

Today’s projection reveals 30,000 souls (of 38,050 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there’s no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities. 88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

Canada’s mortality rate: 0.1% or 998 deaths/million

ONTARIO
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 285 fatalities across Ontario before transitioning to endemic status in late March 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (12,525), an ultimate 12,810 victims are projected 2020–2022.

It reveals Ontario’s wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 — when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day. Today’s daily-deaths rate (6) is 90% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

The model suggests Ontario’s pandemic is 98% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

Today’s projection reveals 10,000 souls (of 12,810 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario’s credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario’s mortality rate: 0.07% or 686 deaths/million

BC
The model indicates the pandemic’s third wave will claim yet another 293 fatalities across the Province before transitioning to endemic status in June 2022 — based on present policymaker mitigation of existing variants. Added to the current toll (2,903), an ultimate 3,196 victims are projected 2020–2022.

It reveals BC’s wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 — when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day. The model deemed wave#1 suppressed a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits. And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022. Today’s daily-deaths rate (7) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

The model suggests BC’s pandemic is 91% complete. Troubling as today’s ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

Today’s projection reveals 3,000 souls (of 3,196 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe. British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off. Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences. Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

BC mortality rate: 0.04% or 422 deaths/million

The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR’s linearization model. It extrapolates a jurisdiction’s mortality rate after the curve’s peak — particularly the most recent days & weeks. The graph’s data points move left to right chronologically above its date’s cumulative death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths. As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count … and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve’s down-slope and assumes no change in gov’t guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour. This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region — presented alone or with comparatives.

About TRENDLines Research

Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends. Specialties include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China; Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia; Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections. Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.

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Freddy Hutter

Freddy Hutter

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TRENDLines Research’s data analyst, Freddy Hutter (BC, Canada) has developed macro-economic models since 1989, publishing unique charts at http://trendlines.ca